Posted by Cosmos’s 2022 and 2024 Predictions
updated to add endnotes.
Dear Nancy, Time to Go DearJoe, Go Bold or Go Home – revised (1)
Nancy Pelosi
Executive Summary
I predict the House and Senate will remain in the hands of the Democrats in 2022 and 2024, but a lot depends on who the Republicans run, if they run right-wing darlings like Trump, or DeSantis they lose, if they run sane moderate Republican governors like Hogan, they will win. if the Democrats nominate someone other than Biden or Harris they will probably win, if Biden runs again, a narrow victory, if Harris runs, they lose (again depending upon the Republican candidate), if Trump runs the third party, the Democrats would win. The Democratic donor class should be encouraging Trump to run the Third-party! calling his party, the Christian Patriot Party.
What Do I Know? Why Listen to Me?
I am a life-long Democrat, having grown up in Berkeley in the late 60s and 70s. I served in the Peace Corps and became a foreign service officer retiring in 2016. I live in South Korea, as I have my wife’s family living here. I hope to return to the Bay Area in another year. I grew up in a politically active family. I served as President of my high school and a student senator at college.
My father, Curtis Cosmos Aller, was the President of the Berkeley Co-Op and the Peralta community college district, served as undersecretary of Labor for Johnson, and a professor and Dean at SF State. and ran for Congress against Ron Dellums winning 40 percent in the primary election in 1974.
I have voted for president since 1974 when I voted against Nixon. I voted for Carter twice, for the Democrats for president in every election. But I also correctly forecast the election returns in every election since 1974.
Here are my predictions for 2022 and 2024, which I will share with the Democratic leadership and post any responses I may receive.
Comments welcomed.
2202 Predictions
2022 is shaping up to be the most consequential mid-term in recent history. The future of America and our democracy is at stake. So far, if I had to bet I would bet on the Senate being held by the Democrats, maybe even a pickup as the math favors the democrats this time around including several open seats due to retirements in Ohio and elsewhere.
The house is more of a tossup. If the democrats are smart, they would announce that Nancy P and the aging leadership are all retiring to open up the field to a new generation of leaders.
But so far there is no indication that they are going to do that.
This opens up the democratic leadership to a challenge along generational lines = as the Republicans continue to paint them as coastal elites out of touch with real Americans which will resonate because there is an element of truth to that.
A lot depends on the following:
Factors Favoring the Dems
If the Democrats can paint Marjorie Taylor Green and her ilk as the face of the Republican party, they can pull off a win.
Marjorie Taylor Green et al play along acting crazy.
Make them the face of the Republican Party –
The impact of the January 6h commission – clearly shows how despicable and dangerous Republicans are, and how complicit they were in plotting a coup.
Trump continues hinting he is running in 2024.
Trump endorses candidates who win the primaries and lose the general.
Trump is indicted and or is sent to prison = could cut either way = making him a martyr or turning off the average American to the MAGA crowd.
Republican in-fighting continues positive for Dems.
Much better unified messaging showing how democratic policies are helping average Americans.
The state of COVID by August – if it is over the democrats get a bump.
State of the economy by August – if inflation slows up, the jobless numbers remain good, the democrats get a bump.
Impact of the big infrastructure bill – will people see it is working?
Democrats get unified positive for Dems.
Democratic turnout is higher than normal despite voter suppression efforts.
Gerrymandering is not as bad as expected mixed signals so far,
Biden’s approval rating is above 50 percent by September,
The war in Ukraine ends with a victory by Ukraine gives a bump to Biden
Spreading of rank choice voting systems, as these systems tend to produce more politically centrist candidates, and slightly favor the Democratic party candidates.
Spreading of jungle primary systems, as these systems tend to produce more politically centrist candidates, and slightly favor the Democratic party candidates. California is the biggest state to embrace both of these more democratic voting systems, but the idea is spreading. Most recently, NYC adopted a rank voting system, which led to the election of Eric Adams, who was everyone’s second choice, and not the first choice for most voters. He is a moderate Democrat in a blue progressive-dominated city.
Factors Favoring the Republicans
The Republicans will make Nancy the symbol of a “coastal elite old political hack leadership out of touch with American voters and values ” which will resonate as there is a kernel of truth to that charge. In short, they will her, and so-called “socialist left woke SF Values” the face of the Democratic party, not Biden so much or Harris.
Nancy Pelosi
Trump announces he is retiring, is imprisoned, or dies – removing the biggest obstacle to the resurgence of the Republican party.
The economy stumbles, favors Republicans.
Republicans nominate centrists moderates resisting the MAGA crusade.
Gerrymandering and voter suppression works as advertised – News out of Texas is not good, 25% of absentee ballots were rejected!
Democrats continue their fratricidal infighting – can’t get a unified message.
Republicans are successful in painting the democratic leadership as “old coastal elitist political hacks out of touch with Americans and not dealing with the nation’s problems due to being too weak internationally and domestically, and beholden to a socialist left-wing woke social warrior culture run amuck.”
The culture wars ignite the Republican base, leading to a higher turnout among the base.
Neutral factors:
Retirements = could cut either way.
The deaths of aging leaders could go either way,
What is the Average Age of Congress?
The average age of the 117th Congress is 59 years old and the median is 60 years old. This is much higher than the median age of 38 years in the United States in 2019, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Of its 435 members, the House has 38 members born in the 1980s and one born in the 1990s, while the Senate welcomed its first millennial. But the age groups with the biggest gains, compared to the 116th Congress, were those born in the 1930s and 1960s. Members in the 80+ and 50-59 age group saw gains, while the 30-39 age group saw the biggest losses. Members of Congress are, overall, getting older.
AGE OF THE SENATE
The average age of the Senate is 63 years. The most popular years of birth are 1952 and 1954, with seven members each.
Who are the Oldest Members of Congress?
From Alaska, all the way to Alabama, the oldest members of the 117th Congress were all born in the early 1930s. Most of them are members of the Senate.
Specifically, the five oldest members of Congress are:
(four Republicans and one Democrat)
- Don Young, age 87, is the Republican U.S. Representative for Alaska’s at-large congressional district. He has served for 25 terms since 1973 and is the current longest-serving member in Congress. (JUST PASSED AWAY AS OF March 19, 2022).
- Dianne Feinstein, age 87, is a Democratic Senator from California running for re-election?
- Chuck Grassley, age 87, is a Republican Senator from Iowa -running for re-election?
- Richard Shelby, age 86, is a Republican Senator from Alabama running for re-election?
- Jim Inhofe, age 86, is a Republican Senator from Oklahoma running for re-election?
Who are the Youngest Members?
As for the youngest members of the 117th Congress, they are all part of the House of Representatives. Most were born in the 1980s except the youngest member of them all.
Here are the five youngest members of Congress:
· (three Democrats, two republicans)
-
- Madison Cawthorn, age 25, is the Republican U.S. Representative for North Carolina’s 11th congressional district. He is the first member of Congress born in the 1990s.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, age 31, is the Democratic U.S. Representative for New York’s 14th congressional district
- Sara Jacobs, age 31, is the Democratic U.S. Representative for California’s 53rd congressional district
- Ritchie Torres, age 32, is the Democratic U.S. Representative for New York’s 15th congressional district
- Jake LaTurner, age 32, is the Democratic U.S. Representative for Kansas’s 2nd congressional district
How Does Age Relate to Party?
Overall, the average age for Republicans in Congress is 58 and 60 for Democrats. Looking specifically at each party in each chamber, the averages are also very similar: – The republicans will seize upon this number, saying that they are the younger generation as opposed to the aging older generation represented by the Democrats.
AVERAGE AGE OF THE 117TH CONGRESS LEADERSHIP
As mentioned before, Congress is getting older. When looking specifically at the leadership in each party, the averages are even higher with Democrats brushing close to 70.
bottom line: Senate to the Democrats due to the math more than anything else.
Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 21 seats held by Republicans are up for election in 2022. Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020.
(2)
the math goes against the democrats in 2024 though.
“There are 33 U.S. Senate seats up for regular election in 2024—21 seats held by Democrats and 10 held by Republicans as of July 2020. this figure will no doubt change given the age of the Senate so there will be more open seats due to retirements and deaths. This math favors the Republicans as they have fewer seats to defend. Based on this factor alone, I’d give the 2024 Senate to the Republicans, the Presidency and perhaps the House to the Democrats.
The map below shows what seats are up for election and the current incumbent in each race.
While I hope the Dems maintain the House, it is too close to call could be a one to the two-vote margin by Democrats, or a two to three margin by the Republicans, but I don’t see a red wave coming nor do I see a blue wave coming. the gerrymandering in place slightly favors the Republicans perhaps giving them five additional seats, and demographic changes mean additional seats in red states and a loss in NY, California, and New Jersey of one seat each.
(3)
2024 Predictions
2024 is shaping up to be the most consequential election in recent history. The future of America and our democracy is at stake. So far if I had to bet, I would bet on the Democrats winning the presidency (but not Biden running again due to age and health concerns or Kamala Harris making it, and Trump not running due to age, or legal impediments or death)
the demographics of the voters favors the Democrats winning the popular vote, and probably the electoral college, the math favors the Republicans taking the Senate, and the House could go either way, lots depends on who wins the mid-terms, and whether right-wing nut cases wing the primaries and lose the general elections, and the success of the voter suppression movement.
My advice/predictions to the Democratic leadership (I will share this with them) are the following:
Biden should retire at the end of his term but announce that he wants an open primary and not endorse any candidate until the dust settles and a clear leader emerges. The rest of the aging leadership should all retire as well, opening up political space to the next generation of leaders to organically emerge.
Kamala Harris stumbles and another candidate emerges. If the Democrats are smart, they would nominate a moderate problem-solving centrist who can win in red or purple states = the governor of Michigan fits the bill. Preferably a woman, as it is time for a woman president. The VP should be a Hispanic or perhaps Asian-American male. Again, a governor would be preferable but a Senator or big city major would be a good pick as well. I would avoid two woman candidates as that might be a step too far for now.
The theme should be time for a renewed commitment to an America that works for everyone, that we are in it together and are united as Americans.
Other themes would be
Continuing rebuilding our failing physical infrastructure, including our public health systems,
Fighting climate change,
Investing in the next generation of technologies,
including robotics and AI systems,
Recommitting to the space program,
Enacting some version of the build back better initiative,
Continuing to work on rebuilding our alliances,
Reforming our failed immigration system,
Fighting against voter suppression efforts,
Encouraging more democratic voting systems such as rank vote and jungle primaries,
And an old throwback, enacting term limits – this is a winning issue with the public and will disarm potential republican attacks
“on old, tired, political elitist coastal hacks running the Democratic party leadership.”
The Democrats should seize this issue as a sort of political jujutsu move. that would be brilliant!
Starting with the retirement of the oldest members of both parties to bring in a younger generation of leaders. if term limits are a good thing for the presidency they are a good thing for Congress to embrace and would be very popular. I’d suggest 12 years (six terms) in the house and three terms in the Senate for a total of 30 years of service with mandatory retirement at age 70.
Avoid getting sucked into the culture wars nonsense it is a waste of time, resources and puts you on the defensive, just no upside to it at all. the less you say on this the better, let them come off as unhinged and out-of-touch.
The focus should be on building on the solid accomplishments of the Biden era and looking forward with a positive, optimistic message.
I would also not get trapped into running an anti-Republican campaign. That was a losing message for Hilary, and also a bit for Biden. People need to hear a positive, powerful optimistic message but pointing out that the Republican candidate is a neo-fascist authoritarian wannabe is fine, but that can not be the only message or the main message.
Keeping it positive, upbeat, and focused on solid accomplishments for the American people is the key. Remember, they have to want to vote for you, not just vote against them!
A winning slogan could be
“Democrats, the party that gets stuff done for the American people.”
I would also avoid getting too sucked into the progressive wish lists, remember the adage to never let the perfect being the enemy of the good. Remember that people have to want to vote for you and just against the other guy. You could run through an anti-republican slogan such as
Republicans, tools of the 1 percent, the party of fascists, insurrectionists, deficit spending and ignoring the needs of the American people,
If the Republicans are smart, Trump will retire for the good of the party and the country, under the excuse of age, health, or legal impediments. Then they should have an open primary.
Predictions for the Republican Ticket
My prediction would be De Santis wins the nomination and picks perhaps Senator Cotton as his VP. This would unite the MAGA crows and the cultural wars crowds. But also provide a solid line of attack for the Democratic nominee.
I don’t see a pathway for Ted Cruz as he has too many enemies, everyone who knows him or has worked with hate his guts.
I also don’t see a pathway for Josh Hawley either for similar reasons. I can see Marjorie Taylor Green running but flaming out during the primary.
Finally, I don’t see a Trump-Biden rematch but if that happens, I will bet that Biden would defeat Trump.
The other unlikely prospect is that the Republicans get smart and nominate either the governor of Ohio or Maryland and run a positive upbeat campaign as
“the party that gets stuff done for the American people”
Note; Great slogan, the Democrats should use it before the Republicans use it.
while painting the Democrats as old, political hacks who are out of touch, cultural justice warrior elitists from coastal blue states. That would be a powerful campaign theme because unfortunately, there is an element of truth to it!
and they would probably win the House, Senate, and Presidency, but fortunately, for the Democrats, they are far more likely to nominate a cultural warrior nut case like DeSantis, with either Cotton as VP or the Virginian Governor as VP.
if Biden runs, a toss-up. If Kamala runs a toss-up. If the governor of Michigan or another female governor runs, Democrats probably win.
If DeSantis runs, probably Republicans will fail, but if someone like Maryland Hogan runs, the Republicans will win. If Trump wins the nomination as a Republican, Republicans will probably fail as well.
If Trump runs third party, too close to call but he would not win as a third-party candidate. If he runs, he should name his party, the Christian Patriot Party, the CPP in short.
The Senate and House would both probably go to the Democrats despite voter suppression efforts as the math and demographics favor the Democratic party.
A personal note. I am married to a Korean-American woman whom I met in Korea and thus would love to see Hogan elected and have the first Asian-American (Korean) First lady.
My bottom line prediction
Both Biden and Trump retire due to age and health concerns.
Kamala Harris does not win the primary contests, as the Democrats selected a more centrist problem-solving figure who defeats the likely republican nominee – De Santis.
Whoever loses, concedes as we restore the tradition of a peaceful transition of power.
Senate and House go to the Democrats, but with narrow majorities.
The rest of the country continues to be split into about 25 red states and 20 blue states, a blue DC, blue PR, blue VI, purple Guam and Samoa, purple military, and 5 purple states.
The End
Endnotes
1)
URL: https://wp.me/p7NAzO-29O Nancy, Time to Go blog piece
(2) https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2022
(3) https://fiscalnote.com/blog/how-old-is-the-117th-congress
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