Reflections on the US Election Including What is Likely to Happen

My Thoughts on The Harris Campaign

I have decided to refrain from overly political postings and poetry from now on. I still have opinions but will restrain myself from posting anything too inflammatory. Just not worth it, and don’t want to end up on some government watch list or worst because of something I posted. I don’t have the bandwidth to think about it. But I did want to offer my analysis as it is.

What Happened?

There are a number of reasons for the results

First off world- wide trends were against incumbents everywhere due to high inflation and perceptions that the economy is not working for the average person. Biden never got upon 40 percent approval and that matters a lot.

Second most people did not vote.

About 50 percent of Americans actually voted. Many people were not eligible, too young, criminal records, recently moved, or just did not bother to vote. Only 35 percent of Americans voted for Trump. A bit less for Harris. In that sense it was a close election, and within the margin of error so those who think the polls were off don’t understand that when it is that close any result is possible, you just can’t predict that..

Third, the country remains deeply divided, half the country are Trump supporters, and half are Harris supporters, there is no huge popular red mandate, He won but it was not a landslide victory, and many people are nervous about the Trump agenda,

Fourth the polls got it right – the results were within the margins of error so it was essentially a coin toss and the Blue Team lost but not by much.

Fifth, there is no massive mandate for Trump. He barely won, and the Republicans barely managed to win both the House and the Senate.

Sixth, Voter Suppression worked.

Just a few examples – purging the voting polls just before the elections, limiting drop box locations, cuting back on poll locations in Blue districts but not in red districts, just one example at Central Florida university campus there were only four polling places open for a population of 50,000 people and lines were very long. This was deliberately done to keep the wrong type of voter from voting.

Seven, Biden should have kept his pledge to be a transitional President and he should have said in November last year he should have resigned citing his mental fit his declining mental fitness.

Harris would have been President and have to compete in an open primary contest. It was obvious to many observers that Biden was showing signs of dementia. He should have stepped down. Instead they circled the wagon and downplayed what was happening or said that Trump was showing signs as well. And many people did not see Harris to be presidential material.

A new leader would have emerged and perhaps won. By the time Biden stepped down it was too late and due to campaign finance rules Harris and only Harris could inherit the apparatus and fund raising. Anyone chosen at the last minute would have to start with zero campaign staff and money.

Eight

So many people get their news from right wing echo chamber filled with misinformation and lies.

The mainstream media is just not influential anymore. Who cares what the WP writes or NYT or MSNBC or CNN. And local news sites have been taken over the right wing. The left has not kept up and need to use the new media and create their own podcast etc.

Nine, the gender gap is real.

Women have moved towards the democratic party; men have moved towards the Republican party. The republicans were able to win over the male vote and working class voters. Celebrity endorsers did not sway the public

Ten The political consultant class failed once again.

Harris would have been better served to run her own campaign without all the professional consultants getting in the way. Trump by and large followed his instincts and was not packaged by consultants. People want authenticity, not packaged politicians.

11, it was not enough to call out the republicans for being authoritarian.

Many people don’t have a clue what that means. Many people don’t know much at all about history and have a very vague idea of Hitler for example. This line of attack failed Hilary and failed Harris as well.

12, what did the democrats offer?

The Republicans were promising all sorts of things but people don’t understand or follow policy debates. Climate change? Yes an important issue but not high on most voters mind. Saving democracy? Not so much. The Biden record on the economy is objectively better but people feel the economy is bad due to high inflation, feel crime is out of control, and feel the border is unsecured. None of that is objectively true but the democrats were not able to break through the fog of misinformation.

13 racism and sexism played a role.

Many people were just not ready for a woman of color to become president. A different woman perhaps? But not this woman.

14 Perceptions Matter Even if the Facts Don’t Support the Narrative

Perceptions that crime is out of control, the economy is in horrid shape and the border is wide open is far more important than the reality.

15 Support for Israel is a Problem.

It is obvious that the current government is determined to defeat their enemies even it if means destroying Gaza and the West Bank and have gone way beyond punishing Hamas for October 7^th attacks and they are now in geocide adjacent territory.. They might win a shortterm victory but long term it is not a winning strategy. Biden and Harris just did not see how this policy was opposed by many voters who would otherwise be in their camp.

16 Lingering impact of the Fall of Kabul

17 Biden’s Garbage Comments were equivalent to Hilary’s Deplorables Comments which cost her the Election

18 Hunter Biden Case was a distraction but it Hurt both Biden and Harris

19 Being from Oakland was a big Negative for Harris as Hating on California is a Big thing especially among Republicans

20 celebrity Endorsements Did not Move the Needle

`21 Harris was not able to distance herself from Biden

22 Harris has a reputation for being a light-weight in over her head

23 Harris was seen by many people as having slept her way to the top

24 Both Biden and Harris were too slow to realize the perception of the Border being wide open hurt them

25 She should have picked Shapiro as her Running Mate

That’s my summary of why Harris lost

Why DId Trump WIn?

One, His base was much more energized than Harris’s base

Two, Racism and Sexism Played a Role as did the Male Gender Gap

Three, Trump Got the New Media environment right and Harris did Not

Four, Many voters went with the Devil We Know vrs the Devil We Don’t Know

Fifth, Many people discount the overheated Rhetoric of Trump

Six. Trump Remains a Masterful Showman and It worked

Seven, Trump is a con man and knows to work his con on his marks – the entire American population

Eight, Voter Suppression Worked in Trump’s Favor

Nine, Russian disinformation campaign worked in Trump’s favor

Ten, Voters Gave Trump a Pass on COVID figuring that was a one off thing and that prior to COVID things were going well

11, More People liked Trump that hate him

12, Trump got the low information voters to vote, Harris did not

13, In the end, Harris did a great job but was dealt a losing ticket from the beginning.

Many voters voted for the Devil they knew rather than the devil they don’t know or bought into the right wing boogey man that Harris was a communist. Which is complete BS , there are no communists running for office in the US and Harris and Democrats are not communists, but hey it worked for some uneducated people. And people did not understand what an authoritarian is or how dangerous Trump and his right-wing allies could be. They just thought Biden and Harris failed and should be voted out of office. And many people gave Trump a pass on COVID thinking the economy was doing fine until that came along.

Trump won a narrow victory in the popular vote but won the seven swing states and most of the red states. His total popular vote will be about 51 percent once all the votes are counted. Hardly a landslide victory.

only 35 percent of Americans voted for Trump, Many people did not vote because they were not eligible or interested enough. In the end Trump will get 51 percent and Harris 47 or 48 percent both well within the margin of error.

Same thing for the Republican Senate and House counts, a narrow but sufficient win hardly a red wave or a huge mandate.

We remain divided into 50 50 nation. The Republicans will Learn that in two years if they overreach as it is likely and if their radical plans lead to a recession or reflection also likely

What Did Not Happen

still processing what happened and what did not happen as well as what might happen.

First Biden and Harris did the right thing by meeting with Trump and promising a smooth transition and normal courtesies. this is important in and in itself.

Second the election went smoothly there were a few isolated incidents of violence, a few Russian bomb threats and some minor voter suppression attempts, but it was a fair and free election. Unfortunately, our side lost.

Third, despite everyone saying the polls were wrong, they were correct it was within the margins of error so it could have gone either way. the final popular vote count will be very close as California votes are finally counted.

It was not a red wave, more a red trickle but just enough to put them over the finish line.

High profile celebrity endorsements did not matter, and made Harris seem to be an elitist out of touch Californian politician.

Harris avoided Hillary’s mistake and campaigned heavily.

but she also fell into the trap of making it all about how bad Trump might be without a real positive focused easily understood message. Joy, and hope could not overcome the title wave of anger and hate and disinformation.

the new media podcasters etc are dominated by the right. Harris should have gone of the Rogan show in my opinion.

No mass protest rallies yet.

The Senate is Not Going to Be railroaded by Trump regarding cabinet appointees or policy and that is a good thing, same thing for the House

No gun shooting at polling places

that’s my two cents worth.

Government Efficiency Commission – How to do it Right

in principle the idea of an government efficiency committee is a good idea. But the way they are doing it is the wrong way to go about it. First the committee should not have any pre-conceived ideas as to how much they should reduce the budget. Second, the committee should reach out to the rank and file and solicit their input on how they would restructure the government and what they would reduce. Third, DOD, DHS, Social Security should all be on the table for a through review. Just one example, it is long over due for the Pentagon to privatize the PX and Commissaries. Domestically there is no need for either -Walmart could run it and provide a discount for active duty personal for example. Same thing for golf courses, bowling alleys and recreational facilities – they can all be contracted out. Just one of many examples.

Two ideas worth considering.

Creating a new Cabinet Department of Immigration and Consular Services merging functions from the Department of State, DHS and DOL.

Creative a new Cabinet of International Trade Promotion merging functions in DOS, DHS, DOL and DHS

What’s Going to Happen

Now what? My prediction? The Republicans and conservative game plan to turn the US into something akin to Hungary has a possibility of working. A one party state where the leader is in charge, the media, legislature, local governments, universities have all been tamed, even though they go through the charade of having elections.

But if they overreach and crash the economy through launching a trade war, or their deportation immigrants also backfires, or the billions of dollars being spent on enforcing it or shutting down large parts of the Federal government because their reckless tax cuts blow a huge hole in the Federal government crippling its ability to do anything, leading to a reflation the democrats could come back if they figure out how to talk with voters and not talk down to voters. And if climate change becomes such a huge problem that their policy of ignoring it and making things worst by drilling for more oil, the democrats could still come back.

But I am cautiously optimistic. Some of the cabinet picks are not too bad relatively speaking but most are right wing ideologues with little experience. And the president and Vice president like a lot of people in power when faced with problems double down and make things worst rather than admitting their policies are not working and doing a course correction. And of course few of them are willing to stand up and do what is right for the country rather than what is right for the party and their leader.

Bottom line we are in for some difficult times. But I remain optimistic we will survive this, and eventually there will be a course correction. There usually is.

Scaled back deportation focusing on criminals and people who have been in the US less than four years, limited amnesty, called earned legalization not amnesty for those who meet the following requirements

speak English

been here for more than four years

have a job

particularly in agriculture, landscaping, construction, nursing homes, restaurants, and hospitality business

pass a criminal background check

willing to pay past taxes and social security payments

priority will be given to spouses of US citizens and parents of US citizens

all illegals will have six months to register and apply for limited green cards. They will be issued temporary green cards for five years, afterwards will be eligible for another five years and after being in the US for ten years will be able to apply for citizenship. Will be allowed to sponsor parents, spouses and children but not siblings.

Temporary pause on immigration visa processing for one year except for IR Status

A new immigration act proposed

DV processing ending

Reduction in Foreign student’s applications by 25 percent

F4 status (Siblings of US Citizens) canceled— I am in Favor of This

all current applicants have one year to confirm they are still interested, speak English, have appropriate job skills, and are at least high school graduates. They will be allowed to immigrate after the one-year pause. If they don’t meet the criteria, their applications will be denied. No new applicants will be allowed to apply, as the category will disappear.

The military pulled back and stationed on the border

Offering repayment of student loans for people who serve in the Federal, State or local government or serve in the military

Offering a new GI bill for service in the military

Making Military training and certifications college credit and transferable nation wide I am a big proponent of this and also expansion of DANTESS testing at all universities.

Five percent of Tariff imposed -this would avoid a ruinous tit for tat trade war

DOGE recommendations unveiled – on line with public comments encouraged and taken into account

10 percent reduction in force for Federal government agencies spread out over four years along with a ten percent budget cutback also spread out over four years

All federal employees will have to reapply for continued employment and have to reapply for security background checks. lowest ranked ten percent will be involuntarily retired. Early retirement buyouts will be encouraged to meet the RIF goals. A three year freeze on salary adjustments and a freeze on new hiring as well.

Department of Education’s new mission is purging Universities of radical leftism eliminating women’s studies, gender studies, queer studies, cultural Marxism, Marxism, and ethnic studies, and eliminating DEI programming, promoting the teaching of patriotic history and civics courses and classical great books courses, Encouraging consolidation and closing of marginal universities. I see this coming.

Banning Trans status declaring that there are only two genders male and female assigned at birth, nationwide bathroom bans, and banning changing IDs. Banning Trans people from service in the Government and banning insurance coverage to gender reassignment. Unfortunately, I see this as very likely to be enacted given the anti-trans hysteria among Republicans,

25 reduction in US AID

Reduction in US support for UN agencies

Elimination of the FS test and separate recruitment

Offering repayment of student loans for people who serve in the Federal, State or local government or serve in the military

Offering new GI bill for service in the military

Comments on Cabinet Picks so far

some are good Rubio for State for Example and the DOL pick. Others are horrible DOD, DNI, CIA, FBI. SO Far the Senate is refusing to roll over and play dead. That is a good trend.