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🕊️ How to Kill a Superpower’s Soft Side: The USAID Autopsy Report

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Jake Cosmos Aller

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🕊️ How to Kill a Superpower’s Soft Side: The USAID Autopsy Report

 

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Note: analysis drawn from Co-Pilot, Media coverage and personal reflections. all opinions are my own and do not reflect the views of my prior employers. End Note

Personal Footnote from a Former Insider

I worked in the F Bureau. I evaluated programs. I collaborated with USAID officers in Barbados and beyond. I saw firsthand how aid—when done right—can transform lives and stabilize regions. Now, that expertise has been replaced by econ officers with no development background and a mandate to “align with U.S. interests.”

The apparatus is gone. The need remains. And rebuilding it—if we ever do—will cost far more than we saved.

It took 64 years to build. It took one memo to dismantle.

On July 1, 2025, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) officially ceased to exist. No farewell ceremony. No bipartisan tribute. Just a quiet burial under the banner of “efficiency,” courtesy of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—a name so Orwellian it practically writes its own satire.

Thousands of careers were vaporized. Contracts shredded. Clinics shuttered. And with them, America’s soft power—its ability to lead not just with missiles, but with medicine, education, and hope—was tossed into the recycling bin of history.

📜 A Brief History of American Benevolence (1945–2025)

  • 1948–1951: The Marshall Plan pumps $13 billion into postwar Europe, proving that foreign aid can be strategic, generous, and wildly effective.
  • Cold War Era: Aid becomes a weapon against communism. South Korea, Vietnam, and Latin America get the dollars—if they toe the ideological line.
  • 1961: JFK births USAID, a sleek new agency to centralize development efforts. Cue the golden age of American altruism (with strings attached).
  • Post-9/11: Aid pivots to HIV/AIDS (PEPFAR), disaster relief, and rebuilding failed states. USAID becomes a global lifeline.
  • 2020s: Climate resilience, gender equity, and pandemic response dominate. USAID manages over $50 billion annually. Until it doesn’t.

🧨 The Great Unraveling

The shutdown was swift. No consultations with foreign governments. No coordination with NGOs. Just a top-down directive from unelected “techbros” working for Elon Musk’s Orwellian named Department of Government Efficiency, with zero foreign policy or foreign assistance experience. The result?

  • PEPFAR: Gutted. 20 million people at risk of losing HIV treatment.
  • MCC: Terminated. Strategic partnerships in Mongolia, West Africa, and the Pacific Islands left dangling.
  • Credibility: Torched. China and Russia now fill the vacuum, offering infrastructure with fewer questions asked.

📰 Media Reactions: A Tale of Two Echo Chambers

🧠🏛️📦 How Is U.S. Foreign Assistance Being Delivered Now?

With USAID shuttered, foreign aid is now managed directly by the U.S. State Department, under a new model emphasizing:

  • Strategic alignment with U.S. foreign policy
  • Private sector partnerships and trade-based development
  • Reduced bureaucracy and fewer intermediaries

However, many NGOs and aid groups report confusion, funding gaps, and delays in program delivery, especially in health, education, and humanitarian relief.

🏗️

🧩 Who’s Running the Show Now? Foreign Aid in the Age of Administrative Amnesia

After USAID’s abrupt dismantling, foreign assistance didn’t vanish—it was reassigned, repackaged, and rebranded under the State Department’s Office of Foreign Assistance (F Bureau). Once a joint State/USAID venture, the F Bureau now flies solo, tasked with coordinating over 90% of U.S. foreign aid. Think of it as the bureaucratic equivalent of duct-taping a jet engine to a bicycle.

🏛️ The New Aid Architects

  • Peter Marocco, the man who signed the memo that gutted USAID, now helms the F Bureau. His résumé includes stints in Defense, Commerce, and a brief cameo as USAID’s Deputy Administrator before he helped shut it down.
  • USAID Staff: 94% laid off. A few hundred absorbed into State in technical roles. Most seasoned development professionals? Gone.
  • Embassy Implementation: Econ and political officers are now expected to manage aid portfolios. Their training? A few online modules and a PowerPoint from the Foreign Service Institute. No field experience. No programmatic depth. Just vibes.

Former USAID officers have warned that this shift risks misaligned programs, poor oversight, and a loss of institutional memory. But hey, at least it’s “efficient.”

🥫 Food Aid: Still Canned, Barely Coordinated

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) continues to operate food aid programs like:

  • Food for Progress
  • McGovern-Dole International Food for Education
  • Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust

But the scale is a shadow of its former self:

  • The Local and Regional Procurement pilot ended in 2022.
  • Emergency food aid is now commodity-based, with fewer field staff and minimal NGO coordination.
  • FAS overseas staff still exist, but their focus has shifted to trade promotion, not humanitarian relief.

Unless Congress steps in, don’t expect a return to pre-2025 levels of emergency food programming.

🌍 Impact by Sector

🧬 Global Health

  • Projected Deaths: A Lancet study estimates 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children under 5, due to the collapse of USAID-funded health programs.
  • Diseases Affected:
    • HIV/AIDS: PEPFAR disruptions could lead to 630,000 deaths annually, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.
    • Malaria: Nearly 10 million new cases predicted in one year, with 7 million affecting children.
    • Tuberculosis & Polio: Resurgence expected due to halted vaccination and treatment programs.
  • Health Systems: Clinics in South Africa, Nigeria, India, and Peru have shut down, trials halted, and supply chains broken.

📚 Education

  • School Closures: In Afghanistan, thousands of girls lost access to underground schools funded by USAID.
  • Higher Education: Over 830 universities worldwide partnered with USAID in 2023; many have lost scholarships, research grants, and infrastructure support.

  • Regional Impact:

  • Africa: Education systems destabilized; children hardest hit.
  • Asia: Myanmar, Pakistan, and Bangladesh saw scholarship programs suspended.
  • Middle East: Egypt and Jordan lost major university partnerships.

🥫 Food Security

  • Emergency Food Aid: USAID funded 42% of global humanitarian food aid in 2024.
  • Program Shutdowns:
    • Sudan: 1,000+ soup kitchens closed; famine deepens.
    • Somalia, Ukraine, Venezuela: Food shipments halted; millions at risk.
  • U.S. Farmers Affected: $70M in commodities stranded; wheat, sorghum, and peas unsold.
  • USDA Programs: Food for Progress and McGovern-Dole suspended, impacting Tunisia, Mauritania, Egypt, and Sudan.

🐉 China’s Response

  • Strategic Expansion:

    • Cambodia: China stepped in with a $4.4M grant for landmine clearance after USAID halted funding.

    • Nepal, Colombia, Cook Islands: Chinese officials offered to replace USAID development funding.

  • Soft Power Gains:

    • China now surpasses the U.S. as the largest bilateral development partner in 84 countries, up from 44 before the cuts.
    • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects are expanding into regions once dominated by USAID
    • China now has the largest number of embassies and consulates worldwide while the US is now number two in terms of diplomatic presence world-wide.

  • Limitations:

  • China’s domestic economic slowdown may constrain its ability to fully replace U.S. aid.
  • Focus remains on infrastructure and trade, not humanitarian relief or education.

🌐 Other Donors’ Response

  • European Union:

    • Scaling up funding via the Global Gateway Initiative (€300B) to support digital education and infrastructure.
    • ETF Report calls for urgent action to mitigate USAID’s withdrawal
    • .
  • Germany, Canada, Japan,  South Korea, Norway, Sweden:
    • Identified as best-positioned to fill gaps in 23 countries where USAID withdrawal exceeds 1% of GNI.

  • Philanthropy & NGOs:

  • Foundations like GiveWell and ITPC Global are stepping in with bridge grants and emergency support.
  • Local NGOs are scrambling to diversify funding and sustain operations.

Korean Peace Corps Memories

Peace Corps Korea Reflections

🕊️ Peace Corps: Restructuring, Not Yet Elimination

  • Personal Note:  I served in the Peace Corps as a public health worker from 1979 to 1981 in the last Peace Corps group in Korea as Korea “graduated” from Peace Corps in 1981. End Note
  • The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has begun a major review and restructuring of the Peace Corps, similar to what preceded the shutdown of USAID and AmeriCorps.
  • Staff at headquarters in D.C. have been offered a second buyout program (“DRP 2.0”), with cuts ranging from 50% to 80% across departments.
  • Overseas posts may see up to 25% staff reductions, potentially forcing closures in some of the 60 countries where the Peace Corps operates.
  • DOGE representatives are actively working inside Peace Corps HQ, signaling that further cuts or a full shutdown may be on the table.

🧭 Current Status: Still Operational, But Fragile

  • Interim CEO Allison Greene has reassured volunteers that the Peace Corps will continue to recruit, train, and support service efforts.
  • Volunteers remain deployed, but many are anxious and uncertain about the future, especially with recruitment and placement staff facing 70% cuts.
  • The Peace Corps is one of the last remaining soft power tools in the U.S. foreign policy arsenal, and its survival is seen as symbolic.

🇺🇸 Why This Matters Post-AmeriCorps

  • With AmeriCorps dismantled and its $400M in grants rescinded, the Peace Corps is now the sole federal volunteer service program still standing.
  • Critics argue that eliminating both would gut America’s grassroots diplomacy, especially in rural and underserved regions abroad.
  • Supporters like Rep. John Garamendi and advocacy groups such as the National Peace Corps Association (NPCA) are lobbying hard to preserve it.

— the Peace Corps is still included in the FY 2026 budget proposal, with a funding request of $430.5 million. That’s a modest decrease from previous years, but it signals that the agency remains operational and valued, at least for now.

Here’s what the proposal emphasizes:

  • Sustaining current operations in over 60 countries
  • Modernizing recruitment and launching new service models
  • Investing in Volunteer health and safety, including medical clearance and treatment
  • Improving IT infrastructure and cybersecurity
  • Aligning global footprint with areas of greatest need and strategic U.S. interests

The budget also includes $7.8 million for the Office of Inspector General, and outlines plans to optimize staffing and streamline operations in response to global shifts and recruitment challenges.

So while the Peace Corps is under pressure, it’s still very much alive in the federal budget. Want to explore how this funding compares to past years or what it might mean for specific country programs?

⚖️ Legal Challenges to the Shutdowns

🏛️ USAID

  • Constitutional Concerns: Legal experts and lawmakers argue that USAID’s shutdown is unconstitutional, since it was codified by Congress in the Foreign Affairs Reform and Restructuring Act of 1998.
  • Congressional Oversight: The law requires Congressional consultation and notification before any reorganization or abolition of USAID.
  • Pending Lawsuits:
    • Filed by USAID employees, contractors, and aid recipients.
    • Allegations include violations of the Impoundment Control Act, Privacy Act, and Administrative Procedure Act.

  • Supreme Court Involvement:

  • In March 2025, SCOTUS upheld a lower court’s restraining order, forcing the administration to resume frozen aid payments.
  • The case is still ongoing, with broader constitutional questions yet to be resolved.

  • Legal Pushback:

  • MCC’s shutdown contingency plan acknowledges its no-year appropriations and statutory protections, which may complicate executive efforts to dismantle it.
  • Lawsuits are expected, especially from countries with active compacts worth over 1% of their GNI, such as Lesotho, Timor-Leste, and Sierra Leone.

🧾 Other Foreign Assistance Programs

  • The Executive Order of January 20, 2025 paused all foreign development assistance for 90 days pending review.
  • Critics argue this violates the Impoundment Control Act, which prohibits the president from withholding funds already appropriated by Congress.

  • Congressional Action:

  • Democratic senators introduced legislation to limit reductions-in-force (RIFs) and protect foreign service officers.
  • The bill faces an uphill battle in the Republican-controlled Senate.

🧠 Key Legal Arguments

  • Separation of Powers: Congress has the sole authority to create or abolish federal agencies.
  • Due Process: Career civil servants and contractors are entitled to notice and legal protections.
  • Appropriations Clause: The president cannot unilaterally impound or redirect funds without Congressional approval.

Here’s a concise summary of the current legal status of the major challenges to the shutdown of U.S. foreign assistance agencies:

⚖️ USAID Shutdown

  • District Court: Multiple lawsuits (e.g. AVAC v. Trump, Global Health Council v. Trump) have led to temporary restraining orders blocking the administration from halting aid disbursements.
  • Key Rulings:
    • Judge Theodore Chuang found the shutdown likely violated the Constitution, especially the Appointments Clause and separation of powers.
    • Judge Amir Ali ruled that the freeze on aid was unlawful under the Impoundment Control Act and Administrative Procedure Act.
  • Appeals Court: The 4th Circuit temporarily stayed Chuang’s ruling, allowing the shutdown to proceed while the case is reviewed.
  • Supreme Court: Lifted a temporary stay on Judge Ali’s order, forcing the administration to resume some aid payments. However, the case is still pending on the merits.

📦 Foreign Assistance Programs (General)

  • Executive Order 14169: Paused all foreign aid for 90 days starting January 20, 2025.
  • Court Challenges:
    • District courts have issued restraining orders blocking the freeze on pre-existing contracts and grants.
    • Plaintiffs argue violations of the Anti-Deficiency Act, Privacy Act, and constitutional clauses.
  • Supreme Court: Narrowly upheld the restraining orders (5–4), but has not ruled on the full legality of the shutdowns.

🏗️ Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)

  • Created by Congress in 2004, MCC is also protected by statute and cannot be dissolved by executive order alone.
    • DOGE’s Shutdown Plan:
      • MCC staff were told in April 2025 that the agency would be effectively shuttered within 90 days.
      • Grants are being terminated, and staff offered deferred resignation or early retirement.
  • Shutdown Status: MCC was effectively shuttered in April 2025, with staff offered deferred resignations and grants terminated.
  • Legal Action:
  • No major court ruling yet, but Rep. Gregory Meeks and advocacy groups have called the shutdown illegal, citing lack of Congressional approval.
  • MCC’s Inspector General is reviewing internal decisions and expenditures, which may lead to further legal scrutiny.

  • 🌎 Two Independent Aid Programs: Now Defunct

    🔹 Latin America: The Amazon Biodiversity & Migration Initiatives

    • Amazon Biodiversity Conservation Partnership: Focused on protecting the rainforest and supporting Indigenous livelihoods in Brazil. It funded sustainable farming, climate adaptation, and income generation for women. The shutdown has forced groups like the Roraima Indigenous Council to lay off staff and cancel programs.
    • Migration & Economic Resilience Projects: In Colombia, USAID funded programs that helped over 40,000 Venezuelan migrants start businesses and access financial literacy training. These efforts reduced migration pressure toward the U.S. but have now been suspended.
    • Coca Eradication in Peru: USAID supported crop substitution (coffee, cacao) to combat cocaine production. With funding gone, Peru’s government is scrambling to continue the program independently.

    🔹 Africa: Health & Governance Programs

    • PEPFAR & HIV/AIDS Support: USAID’s withdrawal has devastated HIV treatment programs across sub-Saharan Africa. Clinics in South Africa, Nigeria, and Zambia are closing or scaling back, and ARV supply chains are disrupted.
    • Democracy & Media Independence: In Liberia, USAID funded media and governance reforms. These are now frozen, threatening press freedom and civic oversight.
    • Agriculture & Education: Programs like Feed the Future and Power Africa are in limbo. NGOs across the continent have shut down due to abrupt stop-work orders.

🧾 Congressional Recission Bill: Status & Scope

  • Signed into Law: President Trump signed the Rescissions Act of 2025 on July 24.
  • Scope:
    • $8 billion cut from foreign assistance programs, including USAID, MCC, and global health initiatives.
    • $1 billion cut from public broadcasting (NPR, PBS), which had implications for emergency alerts in rural areas.
  • What Was Spared:
    • After pushback, $400 million for PEPFAR was restored in the final version.
  • Who’s Next:
  • Republicans have signaled this is just the first of multiple rescission packages targeting what they call “waste, fraud, and abuse”.

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